it's the right idea. and i've pointed this out repeatedly. but the kinds of numbers we're seeing in ontario suggest they're likely to take a bigger dent out of the gta than is present here. superimpose a map of the last provincial election to see what i mean.

my rants were rooted in the idea that they weren't running away with anything, and that the high ndp numbers were more likely to split in favour of the conservatives than actually win the ndp any seats. but, the liberals are positioned far better to take advantage of a dip in ndp support than the ndp are to take advantage of a dip in liberal support. if the liberals are really pushing 40, they will do far better in toronto than this map is letting on, and may very well leap frog. but, that's a question of regional polling, not national polling.

on the one hand, they could get 30% nationally and win 40 seats - if it's scattered around all over the place, as was appearing to be true a few weeks ago. on the other hand, they could get 25% nationally and win 100 seats if they, say, crash to near zero in the prairies and climb into the high 30s in ontario.

there's just really not any evidence that 2011 was a defining election in the 905. as mentioned, these areas just voted for kathleen wynne. and i wouldn't underestimate the effect of that pension plan, which is popular in ontario and that wynne has set up as an election issue. along with a number of other things.

on top of that, there were some factors in 2011 relating to voter apathy with ignatieff that are not present here. as i've stated elsewhere, i think all the liberals really had to do to win in 2011 is not run somebody that backed an illegal war.

but, i'm rationalizing the numbers - the fact is that the snapshots right now are almost identical to the 2014 provincial election results. and, as of this moment, i think there's little conclusion other than that you'll see similar results.

what i was worried about was that the "orange wave" might run over ontario in such a way that converted two-way liberal-conservative races into conservative wins. a three-way split across the province, even if it led to less conservative votes and more liberal votes overall, would just elect more conservatives. but, that doesn't seem to be happening.

globalnews.ca/news/2212501/10-ridings-the-liberals-need-to-win-to-get-out-of-3rd-place/