the geography switches after tonight. bernie just got through his rough patch, and he's actually doing a little better than i thought (although i think he needs to win massachusetts, even if it's just a symbolic thing). it looks like he's coming out of this in good shape for some big wins in less conservative states. the media will hit him hard. but, he's in good shape.
the deep south results are not reflective of the democratic base. hillary won five solid red states that the democrats will never win, all by huge margins. the fact that sanders is winning in colorado should be seen as of much greater importance than hillary's fifty point wins in the bible belt.
he has to win some blue states by the same kind of margins to balance it out. california, new york, washington, oregon - those kinds of states. that was always obvious. and, it's not crazy to think he can, either.
this is just getting started.
but, cruz is not going to be competitive anywhere else - he just got through his good stretch, and has nothing but pain left. the texas results are not indicative of the rest of the country. the minnesota and massachusetts results are. cruz is in third in virginia and fourth in massachusetts. he can win some more small bible belt states, but he has no chance in the purple or blue ones. ohio. california. new york. pennsylvania. he's hopeless, there.
what happens if cruz drops, though? trump benefits, too.
the best way to beat trump right now is probably divide and conquer. can the candidates get through a prisoner's dilemma? they're fucking republicans. my faith is not strong. but, they're better off all staying in and continuing to split the field. any narrowing will just benefit trump.
if they all stay in, kasich can bleed northern liberals, cruz can bleed the christian conservatives and rubio can bleed purple-state middle-of-the-roaders. carson can even bleed black votes.
if you remove any of these candidates, only one person benefits: trump.
i don't know exactly how a brokered convention works, but keeping the field split is probably the only way to actually get there.
the cruz campaign is likely not smart enough to figure this out. the kasich campaign might be. the trump campaign probably is.
if the banks push rubio out to clear a path for cruz, they're actually handing over the nomination to trump.
let's see how smart these actuaries really are.
in fact, they might want to increase the field. can they get rand paul to unsuspend his campaign? that'll take another bite out of him with libertarians. & etc.