we've had plenty of polls, now. but i need to admit that i was reading some of them wrong. i had assumed that they were polling democrats, and i should make a mental adjustment for independents. but, it seems as though some of the polling firms made those mental adjustments themselves, and that i was adjusting it twice.
now, they really shouldn't do that. that's making stuff up. i can do that, because i'm a random person on the internet. but, a polling firm should really just put the data down.
regardless, i should have checked that, rather than assumed it. apologies. i'll acknowledge this is a little half-assed right now, though, too - on account of being a canadian, and not really seriously thinking that bernie has a real chance (it's rigged!).
regardless, the correct understanding of the situation is actually as follows:
1) clinton is actually maintaining a consistent lead amongst democrats of about 5 points. this is not that different than the pre-polling in illinois.
2) sanders has a larger lead of over ten points amongst independents.
the adjustment that the polling companies are doing is then actually maybe a bit more generous than i'd do. if he was winning by 5 amongst democrats, i'd argue the polls say he should win by 10. the polls actually say he's losing by five amongst democrats; i'd argue the polls suggest it should be about a split. but, they're giving him an extra five points.
this is similar to what they were doing in other states, like ohio and illinois. they're setting up higher expectations. then, when he doesn't meet those expectations, a sense of disappointment will set in.
with everything lined up (the polls suggest a split on voting day - then you have "early ballots" and voter suppression), i don't think you should be excited about the results.
the results that are officially recorded will likely be very close to a clean split. she may win by 1%, or he may win by 1%. you're being set up for a fall.
presuming he picks up ten delegates in wyoming, that's going to put him about 20 delegates behind where i suggested he needs to be. which is just all the more reason that he needs a big win in new york. that's right: even if he loses by a hair, the math will still not have really changed.
if he can't win new york - huge - it will be finally time to declare the race a long shot.