Wednesday, April 20, 2016

j reacts to sanders losing in new york (and what he should do next)

so, i got in before the results - it was clear this was going to happen within a few days of the vote, even if i didn't realize the consequences of a closed primary far ahead of the vote (as so few did, apparently).

but, i still don't think it really says anything about clinton's relationship to blacks, in general. it says a lot about clinton's relationship to older, wealthy blacks. but, that was never in question. she does well with older, wealthy whites, too.

it's true she did well in the less wealthy areas, too. but, i want you to realize how absurd this reaction is: the sample size was too small to draw any meaningful conclusions from. that is absolutely ridiculous, but it's also absolutely true. if you hit the new york times results precinct by precinct, you'll have a hard time finding a precinct with more than 400 cast ballots. the harsh reality is that you can't draw any meaningful conclusions from such a biased sample. the fact that they're mostly life-long democrats is probably more important than anything else.

the remaining states aren't going to be as bad in terms of voter suppression, and should provide a better sample. i really wanted new york to give us better data, but the arcane rules that are in place make it even less useful than the previous collections.

anybody that is attempting to use the new york results to demonstrate something that was predicted about demographics, or use it to predict something in the future about demographics, is being dishonest. the only thing of any real value that the data from new york tells us is that dyed-in-the-wool life-long partisan democrats are strongly supportive of the clinton dynasty. which is not news.

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but, again - let me state this clearly.

sanders will almost certainly lose the democratic nomination. and the media is pushing hard for him to drop.

but, he should not drop. just because he's probably going to lose the nomination doesn't mean his campaign is done. i've laid out the reasons he should run as an independent, and why he could very well win. there will be much wrangling on the way there, but it's mostly just an elaborate set of excuses to drag the process on until he can go solo.

could he have won new york tonight if the primary was open? well, they didn't even cast two million votes. there's twenty million people in new york. it's well within the realm of possibility. and, it's consequently not a very strong argument.